UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 833 - JUNE 24, 2024

Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service (GUR), explains that western military aid is reaching Ukraine, but probably not to the extent that will significantly influence the situation on the front lines until at least mid or late July 2024.

Budanov suggests that a sufficient number of ATACMS long-range missiles provided by the United States could enable the Ukrainian armed forces to attack the bridge over the Strait of Kerch on the occupied Crimea built by the Russians, disrupting a critical Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC) between the occupied Crimea and Russia.

The current US policy regarding the use of western weapons by Ukraine allows Ukraine to attack anywhere in the Russian-occupied Ukraine, likely including the use of long-range ATACMS to target the part of the bridge over the Strait of Kerch that is within Ukraine's internationally recognized land and sea boundaries.