UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 83 - MAY 12, 2022

The Russian forces are possibly abandoning their efforts to encircle Ukrainian troops along the Isyum-Sloviansk-Debaltseve line in favor of a shallower encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. The Russian forces have likely been in control of almost all of Rubizhne since May 12 and likely have taken the town of Vovodivka north of Severodonetsk. They will likely launch a ground offensive on or around Severodonetsk in the coming days.

The relative success of Russian operations in this area, combined with the failure of the advance from Izyum and the notable decline in energy of that attempted advance, suggests that the Russians may be considering abandoning the Izyum axis. Reports of Russian forces advancing north from Popasna towards Severodonetsk-Lysychansk rather than east towards the Sloviansk-Debaltseve highway support this hypothesis.

The Russian forces heavily shelled Ukrainian positions north of Kharkiv to halt the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive around the city of Kharkiv. The concentration of artillery on Ukrainian positions likely diverted Russian artillery remaining within reach of Kharkiv to the more pressing task of halting the Ukrainian advance.

The Russian forces are reinforcing their position on Snake Island in an effort to block Ukrainian maritime communication and capabilities in the northwestern Black Sea on the way to Odesa.

The full Russian Offensive Update 82 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online