UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 77 - MAY 6, 2022

The Ukrainian counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv has achieved further successes in the past 24 hours and could successfully push Russian forces out of artillery range of Kharkiv in the coming days. Ukrainian forces have captured several settlements north and east of Kharkiv in the past 24 hours, limiting the ability of Russian forces to threaten Ukraine's second-largest city.

This Ukrainian operation is evolving into a successful, large-scale counteroffensive – unlike the more locally focused counterattacks that Ukrainian forces have carried out throughout the war to secure key terrain and disrupt Russian offensive operations. Ukrainian forces are primarily reclaiming areas in a wide arc around Kharkiv, rather than focusing on a narrow advance. This indicates the ability to conduct offensive operations on a larger scale than we have seen in the war so far (as Ukrainian forces mainly recaptured the outskirts of Kyiv after the Russian retreat and did not engage in a larger counteroffensive).

The willingness of Ukrainian forces to concentrate the forces necessary for offensive operations of this magnitude, rather than deploying available forces for defense in eastern Ukraine, also indicates the confidence of the Ukrainian military to push back ongoing Russian operations to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Sievierodonetsk region. While Ukrainian forces are unlikely to directly threaten Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum – as they run further east of recent Ukrainian advances – they may be able to reduce Russian pressure on Kharkiv and possibly venture further advances toward the Russian border.

Russian forces continue their attacks on the Azovstal plant, but ISW cannot confirm any specific progress. The likely widespread resistance of the civilian population to Russian occupation could also thwart the announced Russian plans for a Victory Day exhibition in Mariupol.

ISW cannot confirm reports of a Ukrainian missile strike on the Admiral Makarov at this time.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 77 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online