UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 663 - DECEMBER 17, 2023

The Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened Finland and the entire NATO alliance in a statement, despite allegedly wanting to dismiss concerns about a threat to NATO by Russia.

Putin gave an extensive interview to the state-owned Russian television channel Rossija 1 on December 17, in which he tried to refute the warning issued by US President Joe Biden on December 6 that Russia would attack a NATO country in the event of a victory in the war in Ukraine. Putin argued that Russia had no geopolitical, economic, military, or territorial reason to fight against NATO, and that Russia was interested in developing relationships with NATO members.

After this supposed reassurance, Putin accused the NATO member states of artificially creating the conflict between Russia and Finland, and of „dragging“ Finland into the NATO alliance. Putin stated that there would be „problems“ with Finland and that Finland's NATO membership had prompted Russian authorities to establish the Leningrad Military District (LMD) and concentrate military units in the northwest of Russia.

The Russian military is currently in the process of restructuring the Western Military District (WMD) to reform the LMD and the Moscow Military District (MMD) as part of a long-term restructuring and expansion to prepare Russia for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO. The MMD is responsible for the Russian border with NATO members Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland, but has largely focused on the conflict in Ukraine and suffered significant losses there. The restructuring of the LMD and the MMD is likely intended to create a balance between Russian operational requirements in Ukraine and Russian military presence along the Russian border with NATO. Putin's justification for the establishment of the LMD, which will be responsible for an area bordering Finland, Sweden, and the Arctic, suggests that he views the LMD as a military response to the „problems“ of current and future NATO members in Scandinavia.

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