UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 655 - DECEMBER 9, 2023

The Russian military has likely committed to conducting offensive operations on multiple fronts under the most challenging weather conditions of the autumn-winter season in order to seize and maintain the initiative before the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.

The Russian military is currently continuing its offensive efforts along a significant portion of the front line in Ukraine, especially along the border between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, near Bakhmut, and towards Avdiivka, as Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly observed; the Russian military is also conducting sustained ground attacks in the western Zaporizhzhia region. The current pace of fighting along the entire front line in Ukraine largely corresponds to ISW's constant assessment that the Russian military has been trying to regain the initiative on the ground since at least mid-November 2023.

Recent official statements from the Ukrainian military also suggest that the Russian military has succeeded in regaining the initiative along the border with Kharkiv-Luhansk oblast, at Bachmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk city axis, while Ukrainian forces are maintaining the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as evidenced by the ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in the western Zaporizhzhia oblast and the persistent Ukrainian presence on the eastern bank of Kherson oblast, which is larger than usual.

The full Russian Offensive Update 655 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR