UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 638 - NOVEMBER 21, 2023

The Ukrainian and Russian forces are continuing their offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather.

The advisor to the Ukrainian military administration in the Kherson region, Serhij Khlan, stated on November 20 that Russian shelling of the western (right) bank of the Kherson region had decreased due to poor weather conditions. The spokesperson for the Ukrainian 14th mechanized brigade, Nadiya Zamryha, mentioned on November 21 that the Russian forces were continuing their attacks towards Kupjansk despite snow and frost. Zamryha added that the number of Russian attacks may decrease due to the weather conditions, but the Russian forces would not completely stop their offensive operations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the need to strengthen Ukrainian capabilities before winter during a meeting with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on November 20.

Russian military bloggers reported on November 20 and 21 that both Russian and Ukrainian forces were facing difficulties in using drones along the entire front due to poor weather conditions, especially in guiding artillery fire. Russian military observers also reported that muddy conditions were making vehicle movement difficult, but both Ukrainian and Russian forces could still maneuver and operate in all directions. The ISW continues to anticipate that winter frost is likely to lead to a resumption of more active combat operations, and that persistent rainy weather will not stop either Ukrainian or Russian attacks.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 638 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR