UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 623 - NOVEMBER 6, 2023

The incarcerated fervent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin believes that the Russian armed forces will be "even less capable of conducting offensive operations than they are today" in the face of current Russian offensive operations along the front line until spring 2024.

Girkin's wife, Miroslava Reginskaya, published a handwritten letter from Girkin dated October 26, summarizing the situation on the front in Ukraine for the month of October. Girkin claims that the situation for the Russian armed forces is "gradually deteriorating" and that despite the "generally successful repulsion" of the Ukrainian offensive in the summer and fall of 2023, the Russian armed forces "show an increasing weakness (compared to the capabilities [of Ukraine])." Girkin argues that not only were the Russian armed forces unable to launch large-scale offensive operations at the beginning of autumn, they were also unable to conduct even limited offensive operations to achieve operationally important objectives – namely around Kupjansk, Lyman, and Avdiivka.

Girkin notes that the Russian armed forces failed to advance towards Kupjansk and are now engaged in fighting at the "distant approaches to the city," while they failed to change the situation towards Lyman. Girkin adds that the tactical advances around Avdiivka led to significant losses of Russian troops and equipment and did not advance the Russian offensive. He notes that the offensive at Avdiivka demonstrated the inability of the Russian armed forces to "achieve superiority in a very narrow section of the front," despite Russia's careful preparations, good coordination of attacking forces and means in the initial phase of the offensive, and an abundance of ammunition, "not seen since the attack on Bakhmut."

The complete Russian Offensive Update 621 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR