UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 600 - OCTOBER 14, 2023

American and Ukrainian officials stated on October 12 and 13 that they expected Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and expressed confidence in Ukrainian defense.

The spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council, John Kirby, said on October 13 that the new Russian offensive operations in Lyman and Avdiivka were "not surprising." Kirby said the U.S. was confident that the Ukrainian forces would repel these Russian attacks. He also reported that the Russian forces appeared to be employing the tactic of the "human wave," in which the Russian military uses large numbers of poorly trained and equipped Russian soldiers to advance - the same practice that the Russian forces had used in their failed winter offensive in 2023.

The ISW also observed that the Russian forces are using a greater number of armored vehicles than usual in the ongoing operations. The representative of the Ukrainian military main intelligence directorate (GUR), Andriy Yushov, reported on October 12 that the Ukrainian forces had been informed about and prepared for the Russian attack at Avdiivka, and that the Russian forces did not have sufficient reserves for an attack along the entire front line, but only in specific sectors. Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian mines were slowing down the Russian advance near Avdiivka, indicating Ukrainian preparations for the attack.

The full Russian Offensive Update 599 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR