UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 575 - SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

The Russian government quickly signaled on September 19 that Russian peacekeepers would not intervene in Azerbaijan's military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, despite Russia's previous security relationships with Armenia.

The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense announced that Azerbaijani forces began a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the Russian military is in contact with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials "at the highest level." Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova made a general statement calling on "all sides" to stop the bloodshed, stating that the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh continues to fulfill its assigned tasks, and cited the trilateral Russian-Armenian-Azerbaijani agreements signed in 2020 and 2022 as a path to peace. Chairman of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, Andrei Karpatalov, stated that the Russian peacekeeping contingent does not have the right to use weapons unless directly threatened. A pro-Kremlin military blogger claimed that the Russian peacekeeping contingent does not have protocols for the use of force or rules of engagement in Nagorno-Karabakh, and instead operates based on the peace agreement from November 2020.

Russian and Ukrainian sources attribute the recent Ukrainian advances south of Bakhmut to improved Ukrainian combat coordination, more accurate artillery fire, and stronger electronic warfare systems, while reports of significant Russian losses in this area continue.

Reports indicate that Russian losses in the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast have increased significantly in recent days, and the Russian military is likely struggling with a lack of available combat-capable units that the Russian command is willing to shift laterally into this front sector.

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and ballistic missile attacks of the Shahed-131/-136 type on rear areas of Ukraine on September 19.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 575 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR