UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 574 - SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

The liberation of Klischtschiwka and Andriiwka south of Bakhmut by Ukraine could have weakened the Russian defense in the area south of Bakhmut and impaired the combat effectiveness of up to three Russian brigades, according to Ukrainian military sources.

Commander of the Ukrainian Ground Forces, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated on September 18 that Klischtschiwka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut) and Andriiwka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut) are important elements of the Russian defense line of Bakhmut-Horlivka, which Ukrainian forces had „broken through." Ukrainian Armed Forces Eastern Group spokesman Captain Ilya Yevlash stated on September 17 that the liberation of Klischtschiwka will allow Ukrainian forces to control the Russian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) supplying the Russian troop group in the Bakhmut area – likely referring to Ukrainian forces' ability to take fire control over the T0513 Bakhmut-Horlivka highway.

Currently, ISW is unable to independently assess the strength and extent of Russian defensive fortifications in the Bakhmut area, although Russian forces likely have less fortified defense lines near Bakhmut compared to southern Ukraine. Russian forces south of Bakhmut are likely also combat fatigued from recent efforts to hold Klischtschiwka and Andriiwka, and the Ukrainian capture of two settlements crucial to defending an important Russian GLOC supporting Bakhmut suggests these forces are likely to have difficulty replenishing their combat power and defending against further Ukrainian offensive activities south of Bakhmut. However, there are no immediate indications that the liberation of Klischtschiwka and Andriiwka will lead to a quicker Ukrainian advance south of Bakhmut, and the Russian defense of positions west of the T0513 highway will likely continue to pose a challenge for Ukrainian forces in that area.

The full Russian Offensive Update 574 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR