UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 568 - SEPTEMBER 12, 2023

According to Russian insider sources, there is once again disagreement within the inner circle of the Kremlin regarding the necessity and preparations for a second wave of reserve mobilization ahead of the semi-annual conscription cycle in the fall, which begins on October 1.

A Russian Telegram channel with alleged connections to Russian security sources claims that selected Russian officials are “seriously” preparing for a second wave of reserve mobilization and hope to conduct another wave of reserve mobilization in the fall. It is important to distinguish between Russia's normal semi-annual conscription, a large-scale reserve mobilization like the one that brought over 300,000 reservists into the Russian armed forces in the fall of 2022, crypto-mobilizations where reservists are incorporated into the armed forces over a longer period in smaller numbers, and various efforts to encourage or compel Russians to allegedly sign voluntary contracts with the Russian military.

The source claims that Russian officials are considering mobilizing between 170,000 and 175,000 reservists and want to move the conscription date in the fall from October 1 to November 1 in order to enable mobilization of reservists while simultaneously conducting a “contract mobilization” to recruit an additional 130,000 individuals for contract service through coercive means. The source mentions that an influential group of “siloviki hawks” is also proposing stricter measures for mobilizing reservists, such as restricting certain individuals' access to mobilization deferrals, leading to significant disagreements with officials in the Russian presidential administration. The source claims that the presidential administration fears a response to such measures from other Russian officials and the broader Russian society.

The full Russian Offensive Update 568 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR