UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 535 - AUGUST 10, 2023

The Wagner Group continues to operate in facilities in Belarus, and the status of their rumored withdrawal to Russia remains unclear.

Satellite images collected on August 9 show a significant number of vehicles at the Wagner camp in Tsel, Asipovichy, Belarus, and may indicate that additional vehicles have arrived at the base between August 1 and August 9. Ukrainian sources continue to report an expansion of Wagner activities in the Brest Oblast, and a Wagner-affiliated source published footage on August 10 showing Wagner trainers continuing to train Belarusian military personnel.

The Wagner-related source added a denial by an alleged Wagner fighter, in which he stated that the speculations are „figments of the imagination“, although he admitted that many Wagner fighters often only find out about their missions at the last moment. However, ISW has not observed any counter-indicators to refute recent speculations from August 8, which stated that Wagner had transported 500 to 600 people with buses from Belarus to the Krasnodar region and the Voronezh and Rostov Oblasts. Russian sources speculated that Wagner forces intend to carry out the second phase of their alleged withdrawal from Belarus on August 13, but a small group of Wagner trainers will remain in Belarus to train Belarusian forces.

The full Russian Offensive Update 535 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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