UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 510 - JULY 16, 2023

The Russian Ministry of Defense has started to dismiss commanders of some of the most combat-capable units and formations of the Russian military and seems to be accelerating these efforts.

The recent dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, Colonel General Ivan Popov, and the reported dismissal of the commander of the 106th Guards Airborne Division (VDV), Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, have sparked further discussions about other alleged dismissals and arrests. WDV Mountain Division on July 15, where personnel claimed that the Russian military command dismissed the commander of the 7th WDV Division, Major General Alexander Kornew, at the beginning of July. Russian sources also claimed that Russian authorities had arrested the commander of the 90th Tank Division (Eastern Military District), Major General Ramil Ibatullin, as well as two unspecified deputies at an unspecified time.

A prominent pro-Kremlin milblogger suspects that the Russian military leadership is also planning to dismiss the commander of the 31st WDV Brigade, allegedly Colonel Sergey Karasev. Russian sources speculate that the Russian Ministry of Defense may be preparing for the arrest of WDV commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky. ISW has not found confirmation of the dismissals of Seliverstov and Kornew, as well as the arrest of Ibatullin, although these claims follow a similar pattern to previous claims of command changes that have proven to be true.

The escalating dynamic of insubordination among Russian commanders in Ukraine may lead other commanders to openly resist the Russian military leadership. Russian commanders are likely creating informational conditions to prevent the Ministry of Defense from punishing them for their refusal to follow orders by spreading narratives among Russian military personnel at the front, risking widespread demoralization. Russian veterans and ultranationalist communities appear willing to defend the commanders' insubordination by spreading defeatist discussions that can directly affect the morale of Russian soldiers.

Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of attempting a drone attack from the air and sea against unspecified targets in the Black Sea near Sevastopol in Crimea during the night of July 15-16.

The Russian "Lancet" drone manufacturer Zalo Aero Group announced the production of a new generation of drones with automated target systems and the intention to expand production abroad.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 510 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR