UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 507 - JULY 13, 2023

The former commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the United Armed Forces (CAA), Major General Ivan Popov, claimed in a leaked audio message that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had dismissed him for voicing persistent complaints to higher commanders about problems on the front line in the western area of Zaporizhia.

Russian State Duma deputy and former deputy commander of the Southern Military District (SMD), Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev, leaked an audio message from Popov on July 12, in which Popov stated that the Russian leadership had dismissed him for complaining about the lack of support for the Russian forces and replaced him with Lieutenant General Denis Lyamin. Popov claims that he expressed his concerns to the "highest level" of the Russian command about the lack of Russian capabilities to counter artillery, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations, significant Russian losses from Ukrainian artillery fire, and other issues. Popov says that Shoigu dismissed him because his honesty in addressing various problems in the Russian military had jeopardized the Russian leadership. Popov stated that he had chosen to "call things by their name" in the name of his deceased comrades, instead of "remaining in silent cowardice." Russian sources had previously claimed that the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, had dismissed Popov for expressing concerns about the need for troop rotations in the western region of Zaporizhia in light of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The dismissal of Popov due to Russian losses and complaints about missing troop rotations underscore the ISW's assessment that Russian defense in Ukraine is likely brittle.

On July 13, Ukrainian forces continued their counteroffensive in at least three sectors of the front line and made progress in some areas.

According to reports, after the armed uprising by the Wagner Group on June 24, the Kremlin ordered the arrest and suspension of several senior military officers, confirming ISW's previous assessment that the Kremlin likely intends to purge the Ministry of Defense of individuals deemed disloyal.

The full Russian Offensive Update 507 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR