UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 498 - JULY 4, 2023

The Ukrainian armed forces appear to be focused on creating an asymmetric attrition gradient that spares Ukrainian forces at the cost of slower territorial gains, while gradually wearing down Russian forces and equipment.

The Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council, Oleksiy Danilov, reported on July 4 that the Ukrainian armed forces are fulfilling their main task of destroying Russian personnel, equipment, fuel depots, artillery, and air defense, stating that a „war of destruction is equivalent to a war of kilometers“. Danilov's assessment highlights that Ukraine prioritizes the attrition of Russian troops and facilities over conducting extensive mechanized maneuvers for rapid recapture of large territories. NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Bob Bauer stated on July 3 that the Ukrainian armed forces are right to proceed cautiously and should avoid high losses in a counteroffensive, acknowledging that the counteroffensive is challenging due to landmines and other obstacles reaching up to 30 km deep into Russian-occupied territory. Bauer mentioned that the Ukrainian armed forces should not be criticized or pressured for their slow approach.

On July 5, Russian and Ukrainian authorities intensified their rhetoric related to the situation at the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), but Russia is likely focusing on accusing Ukraine of irresponsible actions related to the ZNPP, including creating conditions for a possible false flag attack. It is unlikely that Russia is currently causing a radiological incident at the ZNPP.

The reported reorganization of Russian internal security forces indicates that the Kremlin has not concluded that it has effectively neutralized the threat of future armed uprisings following the Wagner Group uprising on June 23 and 24. Russian authorities absolve the financier of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, of financial responsibility for the damages caused by the Wagner Group uprising and have reportedly returned substantial liquid assets to Prigozhin, possibly as part of an agreement negotiated between Putin, Prigozhin, and Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko.

The full Russian Offensive Update 497 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR