UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 454 - MAY 21, 2023

The mercenaries of the Wagner Group have likely secured the western administrative boundaries of Bakhmut city, while Ukrainian forces continue to prioritize counterattacks in the outskirts of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian military reports indicate that Ukrainian forces control an "insignificant" portion of the southwestern city of Bakhmut around the T0504 highway - tacitly confirming that Russian forces have secured the rest of western and northwestern Bakhmut, if not the entire area. These official statements suggest that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the remaining areas in Bakhmut, except those adjacent to the two highways into the city. Geolocated footage released on May 21 shows Wagner forces raising Russian and Wagner flags over a residential building in the far west of Bakhmut.

The likely seizure of the last remaining small area in the west of Bakhmut by the Wagner Group has no impact on the ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks north or south of Bakhmut, nor on Ukrainian control of the ground lines of communication (GLOCs) around Bakhmut, which exhausted Wagner forces would need to reach in order to conduct further offensive operations. Russian forces will likely require additional reinforcements to hold the city of Bakhmut and its flanks, diverting resources from operations in other directions. ISW has observed artillery units of the 132nd Motorized Rifle Brigade of the Separatist Guard (previously observed in the Avdiivka area) operating towards Bakhmut.

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the Wagner Group and the Russian military on May 21 for the capture of Bakhmut. Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin predictably claimed victory over Bakhmut city for himself and his troops.

Russian reactions to the alleged capture of Bakhmut highlight the growing divide between the Kremlin's domestic portrayal of the war and the reporting of ultranationalist milblogger community on Russian operations in Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden announced on May 21 that the US will train Ukrainian pilots on fourth-generation aircraft, including F-16s, to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities in the long term.

Read the full Russian Offensive Update 454 directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online