UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 434 - May 1, 2023

On the night of April 30th to May 1st, the Russian armed forces conducted another large-scale missile attack on Ukraine.

Ukrainian sources report that nine Tu-95 and two Tu-160 strategic bombers took off from the Murmansk region and near the Caspian Sea and fired 18 Kh-101/555 cruise missiles at Ukraine. The Ukrainian air defense system was able to shoot down 15 of the missiles. Geolocated footage from Pavlohrad, Dnipropetrovsk region, shows that one of the missiles hit the chemical plant in Pavlohrad, causing a massive explosion upon impact.

On May 1st, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the attacks were aimed at Ukrainian military-industrial objects and successfully disrupted the production of military resources. The Russian Ministry of Defense has recently changed its rhetoric, actively describing offensive campaigns, likely in an effort to portray a proactive approach in the face of growing concerns in the Russian information space about a Ukrainian counteroffensive. Russian military bloggers claim that the missiles hit Ukrainian air defense systems and a transportation hub in Pavlohrad. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuri Ihnat notes that the fact that both the Tu-95 and Tu-160 carried far fewer missiles than their maximum load suggests that Russia still has problems with adequate production of such ammunition.

The full Russian Offensive Update 434 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online