UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 432 - APRIL 29, 2023

The financier of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, threatens to withdraw the Wagner troops from Bakhmut if the Russian military leadership does not provide more ammunition to the Wagner mercenaries.

Prigozhin stated on April 29 in an interview with a pro-Kremlin military blogger that the Wagner mercenaries will continue to fight in Bakhmut, but they must “organize a retreat or stay and die” if the situation does not improve immediately. Prigozhin believes that Wagner needs about 80,000 grenades per day - his previous grenade supply before the apparent efforts of the Russian Ministry of Defense to reduce Wagner's influence. Prigozhin added that Wagner only receives 800 of the 4,000 grenades per day it currently requests. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner and the deputy commander of the Russian forces in Ukraine, Army General Sergey Surovikin, have developed a plan to “crush” the Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut, depriving Ukraine of its initiative on the battlefield.

Prigozhin's mention of Surovikin is likely an attempt to publicly ally himself with Surovikin, as Russian President Vladimir Putin's favor shifts away from the network of Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Army General Valery Gerasimov. Prigozhin is likely trying to regain access to more ammunition as Putin once again reshapes the Russian military leadership in a way that could favor Prigozhin.

On April 29, Ukrainian forces attacked an oil depot in Sevastopol, allegedly with a wave of Mugin-5 drones.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that Russian forces conducted a sea-based missile strike on the headquarters of the Ukrainian Kherson troop group. Ukrainian authorities have not yet confirmed this claim.

The full Russian Offensive Update 432 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online