UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 389 - MARCH 17, 2023

Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a state visit to Russia from March 20 to 22, also discussing the circumvention of sanctions and Chinese interest in mediating a negotiation solution for the war in Ukraine.

According to the Kremlin, Putin and Xi plan to sign unspecified bilateral documents and discuss current issues of the comprehensive partnership between Russia and China. Chinese companies have reportedly sold rifles, drone parts, and equipment to Russian facilities that could be used for military purposes, and Western intelligence agencies have stated that the Chinese leadership is considering supplying weapons to Russia. Xi likely wants to discuss plans with Putin to circumvent sanctions in order to support the sale and delivery of Chinese equipment to Russia.

ISW has already noted that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Xi signed a package of 16 agreements on March 1 that could facilitate Russia's circumvention of sanctions by redirecting Chinese products through Belarus. Xi likely also wants to promote Chinese efforts to position China as an impartial mediator in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. China released a wide-ranging 12-point peace plan for the war in Ukraine on February 24, although it remains unclear what exactly the Chinese proposals for a negotiation solution for the war would entail. Xi may try to leverage his success in mediating the restoration of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia into a larger mediation effort in this war.

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