UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 386 - MARCH 14, 2023

Two Russian Su-27 aircraft shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea in international airspace.

US General James B. Hecker stated that two Russian aircraft collided with the drone, resulting in the crash of both aircraft and the loss of the drone. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims that the drone crashed due to a "sharp maneuver." The incident will not lead to an escalation of direct conflict between Russia and the US. Russian forces have long used jamming signals against US and allied flights and naval ships in various locations without leading to conflict.

The presidents of the US and Russia have full freedom to decide how they want to react to such incidents, and there is no automatic escalation in such situations. Considering President Joe Biden's repeated assurances not to involve US forces in direct conflict with Russia and the Kremlin's clear and repeated aversion to engaging in war with NATO, there is no reason for incidents like this to lead to dangerous escalations.

The full Russian Offensive Update 386 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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