UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 379 - MARCH 7, 2023

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy declared on March 7 that a hypothetical Russian capture of Bakhmut would open a "clear road" to Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, and other important settlements in the Donetsk region for Russian forces.

However, the ISW still believes that the Russian forces are unlikely to be able to exploit the tactical capture of Bakhmut to achieve operational effects and are likely to quickly peak after taking Bakhmut. As previously assessed, after capturing Bakhmut, Russian forces would likely have to choose between two diverging lines of advance. Russian forces may attempt to advance along the T0504 highway to the west towards Kostiantynivka (approximately 20 km from Bakhmut) or along the E40 highway to the northwest towards the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk area in the northwest of Donetsk oblast (approximately 40 km northwest of Bakhmut). These two potential axes of advance do not mutually support each other, and weakened Russian forces would likely need to prioritize pursuing one of the axes in order to have any chance of success – although Russian commanders have repeatedly overstretched their forces across multiple lines of advance during the invasion in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have also heavily fortified these two routes, which are supplied by numerous communication lines extending deep into Ukrainian rear areas, and any Russian attempt to advance on these roads would likely be very costly.

The full Russian Offensive Update 378 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online.