UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 369 - 25. FEBRUARY 2023

According to reports, British, French, and German authorities are preparing a NATO-Ukraine pact that falls far short of the protection Ukraine would receive through NATO membership, but apparently reflects a desire to pressure Ukraine into accepting a negotiation solution on unfavorable terms.

The Wall Street Journal reported that the exact terms of the pact are not yet finalized, but authorities indicated that the pact will provide Ukraine with modern military equipment, weapons, and ammunition, but does not include protection under Article V or a commitment to station NATO forces in Ukraine, contrary to Ukraine's aspirations for full NATO membership. Sources explain that the pact aims to equip Ukraine so that Ukrainian forces can conduct a counteroffensive that brings Russia to the negotiating table and deters future Russian attacks.

The Wall Street Journal notes that these officials expressed reservations about the West's ability to endure a prolonged war, the high number of casualties Ukraine would suffer in such a war, and the ability of Ukrainian forces to fully recapture long-held territories like Crimea. The Wall Street Journal compares the personal reservations of these authorities to the public expressions of support from US President Joe Biden, which did not mention peace negotiations, as well as the concerns of Central and Eastern European heads of state and government that premature peace negotiations would encourage further Russian aggression. Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no signs of willingness to compromise on his stated maximalist goals, which include the "neutrality" of Ukraine and demilitarization, as well as a de facto change of regime in Kyiv.

The full Russian Offensive Update 369 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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