UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 359 - FEBRUARY 15, 2023

Russia's costly military campaign in Ukraine has likely significantly depleted the Russian equipment and personnel reserves needed for a successful major offensive in eastern Ukraine.

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace told the BBC that the United Kingdom does not see the Russians "muster a single force to launch a major offensive," noting that the Russians are now trying to advance in the Donbas at "enormous cost." Wallace estimates that Russia may have deployed up to 97 percent of its army for the fight in Ukraine and that its combat efficiency has decreased by 40 percent, due to a "First World War-level attrition" where Russian advances are measured in meters falling in human waves.

The ISW cannot independently confirm Wallace's assessments, but his observation that Russia does not have enough mechanized combat power for a breakthrough aligns with previous ISW assessments that the conventional Russian military needs significant restructuring before it is capable of conducting effective maneuver warfare again. Wallace's observations also suggest that Russia does not have unused combat-ready reserves capable of a large-scale offensive, which is also the ISW's assessment.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 359 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online