UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 357 - FEBRUARY 13, 2023

Moscow continues to use its relationship with Iran to provide military support for the war in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) intercepted audio recordings on February 10 of two Shahed drone pilots speaking in a “Kurdish dialect, interspersed with Farsi words,” discussing targets. The ISW cannot definitively identify the dialect in the recording, but the fact that the individuals in the recording are Shahed operators suggests they could be operators from Iranian Kurdistan likely affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). It is much less likely that Russia was able to identify or recruit individual Kurdish fighters with drone experience to conduct Shahed attacks on Ukraine.

The ISW has previously reported that IRGC-affiliated elements likely support Russia's use of Shahed drones by serving as operators and trainers, and the operators intercepted by the GUR are likely part of the same effort.

On February 13, the British newspaper "The Guardian" reported that Iran smuggled at least 18 long-range drones to Russia using boats and Iranian state aircraft. According to "The Guardian," these deliveries include six Mohajer-6 drones and 12 Shahed-121 and 129 drones capable of air-to-ground attacks, unlike the Shahed-131 and 136 drones used by Russian forces in Ukraine, which deliver payloads to the target and return to base. Russian milbloggers noted on February 13 that Il-76 cargo planes belonging to the IRGC regularly fly to Russia, indicating that Tehran regularly provides Moscow with a variety of materials through IRGC-owned aircraft. Taken together, this data suggests that Russia continues to rely on military and technological support from Iran in Ukraine, and that some Iranian personnel are likely present in Ukraine to directly support Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure.

The full Russian Offensive Update 357 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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