UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 349 - 5. FEBRUARY 2023

The decisions of Russian President Vladimir Putin regarding Ukraine since his initial failed invasion on February 24, 2022, suggest a likely discrepancy between his maximalist goals and his willingness to make the risky decisions necessary to achieve those goals.

Putin likely assumed incorrectly that Russian forces could force Kyiv to surrender without significant military casualties and viewed the Russian invasion as a limited and acceptable risk. For example, captured Russian military plans indicate that the Kremlin assumed that Russian forces would take Kyiv within a few days, Russian intelligence reportedly anticipated the collapse of the Ukrainian military, and Kremlin propagandists pre-released an article praising Russia's "victory" on February 26, 2022.

Reports that Putin ignored the Russian Central Bank's foresighted warnings in February 2022 about the impact of a war in Ukraine on the future of the Russian economy under harsh Western sanctions suggest that Putin mistakenly believed the West would not impose major costs on his invasion. The failure of Russian forces in the Battle of Kyiv – and thus the Kremlin's war plan – has forced Putin into complex decisions as the Kremlin now engages in an increasingly costly and protracted conventional war. However, Putin has continued to hesitate to order the difficult changes in the Russian military and society that are likely necessary to salvage his war.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 349 is available directly at UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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