UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 336 - JANUARY 23, 2023

According to the assessment of the Ukrainian intelligence service, the Russian armed forces are preparing for an offensive in the spring or early summer of 2023, partially confirming ISW's consistent assessment that the Russian troops could undertake a decisive action in the coming months.

The representative of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR), Vadym Skibitsky, stated on January 20 that spring and early summer 2023 will be pivotal in the war, confirming that the GUR has observed signs of Russian troops reorganizing in preparation for a "major offensive" in the Donetsk and Luhansk areas. Skibitsky also reaffirms that it is unlikely for the Russian armed forces to launch an attack from Belarus or southern Ukraine.

ISW has previously noted that the Russian armed forces may be preparing for a decisive operation (either offensive or defensive) in the Luhansk area, and after the Russian withdrawal from the Kherson area, a relocation of conventional forces, such as airborne units (VDV), on the Svatove-Kreminna axis has been observed. ISW also considers it highly unlikely for the Russian armed forces to plan a new offensive on northern Ukraine from Belarus. Skibitsky's assessments largely support ISW's ongoing forecasts regarding Russian intentions in the first half of 2023 and underscore the continued need for support from Western partners to ensure that Ukraine does not lose the initiative to another Russian offensive operation.

The full Russian Offensive Update 336 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online