UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 330 - JANUARY 17, 2023

On January 17, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that he would implement the directive from Russian President Vladimir Putin to carry out a large-scale military reform between 2023 and 2026. This is intended to expand Russia's conventional forces, likely in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine, and to create the conditions for the rapid buildup of a significantly stronger Russian military.

Schoigu stated that Putin directed Russian authorities to increase the number of Russian military personnel to 1.5 million (from the current 1.35 million). Schoigu mentioned that the Russian Ministry of Defense would make unspecified "far-reaching changes" in the composition, personnel, and management areas of the Russian Armed Forces between 2023 and 2026. He emphasized that Russia also needs to strengthen the key structural components of the Russian Armed Forces. He announced that Russia would restore the military districts of Moscow and Leningrad, form a new army corps in Karelia (on the Finnish border), establish new self-sufficient troop groupings in occupied Ukraine, and create 12 new maneuver divisions.

Schoigu also stated that Russia needs to enhance its capability to adequately prepare its forces by developing more training grounds and increasing the number of trainers and specialists. Schoigu had hinted at aspects of this reform during a meeting of the Russian Ministry of Defense on December 21, suggesting the formation of two new airborne divisions and three new motorized infantry divisions, transforming seven existing brigades of the Northern Fleet and the western, central, and eastern military districts into seven new motorized infantry divisions, and expanding five existing marine infantry brigades into five marine infantry divisions. It appears that Schoigu did not mention the conversion of five marine infantry brigades into divisions in his statement on January 17. It is unclear if this part of the plan has been dropped.

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