UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 325 - JANUARY 12, 2023

The likely occupation of Soledar by Russian forces on January 11 does not represent a strategically significant development and does not indicate an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut.

Geolocated footage from January 11 and 12 suggests that Russian forces likely control most, if not all, of the town of Soledar and have likely pushed Ukrainian forces out of the western outskirts of the town. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Sil in the Donetsk region - a settlement more than a kilometer northwest of Soledar and beyond the previous Ukrainian positions. The Ukrainian General Staff and other senior military sources mostly did not report that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks on Soledar on January 12, as they had done previously.

Russian sources claim that Russian forces are still clearing Soledar of remaining Ukrainian forces on January 12. Russian milbloggers have published images on January 12 of Wagner group fighters freely moving in Soledar, claiming to have visited the settlement along with Russian forces. The Russian Defense Ministry has not announced that Russian forces have taken Soledar, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov congratulated Russian forces on successful offensive operations in the settlement. All available information indicates that Ukrainian forces in Soledar no longer maintain organized defense. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's statement on January 12 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Soledar may refer to defense positions nearby, but not inside Soledar.

The full Russian Offensive Update 325 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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