UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 312 - DECEMBER 30, 2022

Russian forces attacked Kyiv with drones of Iranian production on the night of December 29th to 30th, increasing the number of drone attacks in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Air Command reports that Russian forces fired 16 Shahed-131 and -136 drones at targets in Ukraine on the night of December 29th to 30th, and that the Ukrainian air defense shot down all drones. Ukrainian officials report that Russian forces fired seven drones at targets in Kyiv and that the Ukrainian air defense shot down all drones, with one of the drones hitting an administrative building. The Russian drone attacks follow a series of massive Russian missile and drone attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructures on December 29th, in which Russian forces used 23 drones, mostly Shaheds.

The use of 39 drones by the Russian military in the past two days, the use of 30 Shahed-131 and -136 drones on the night of December 18th to 19th, and the use of 13 Shahed drones on December 14th represent a significant increase in the use of these systems in Ukraine. According to an ISW assessment on December 10th, the increased pace of Russian drone attacks may indicate that Russian forces have acquired more drones of Iranian production after not using them for three weeks (November 17th to December 7th), or that Russia has received or expects a new delivery of drones from Iran. The Russian forces have likely intensified their drone attacks to sustain their campaign against critical Ukrainian infrastructures, as their stocks of precision missiles are likely depleted. Ukrainian air defense has proven highly effective in shooting down Shahed drones in recent times, and the use of these systems by the Russian military in attacks on civilian targets in rear areas is showing decreasing effectiveness. The Russian military will likely continue to use a larger number of these systems for attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine in their attempt to break the Ukrainian resolve.

The full Russian Offensive Update 312 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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