UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 305 - DECEMBER 23, 2022

Moscow has been creating the conditions for a new most dangerous course of action (MDCOA) since at least October 2022 - a possible renewed invasion in northern Ukraine, possibly targeting Kyiv.

This MDCOA could be a Russian information operation or reflect the actual intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The currently available indicators are mixed - some verified evidence of Russian buildup in Belarus is more part of preparations for a new offensive rather than part of ongoing exercises and training practices, but there is still no evidence that Moscow is actively preparing a military force in Belarus.

The concern that Putin could continue this MDCOA is certainly not just a Ukrainian information operation aimed at pressuring the West to supply Kyiv with more weapons, as some Western analysts have claimed. According to ISW's assessment, a renewed Russian major invasion from Belarus this winter is unlikely, but it is a serious possibility.

The full Russian Offensive Update 305 is available directly at UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online