UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 302 - DECEMBER 20, 2022

The US policy should recognize, analyzes ISW, "that the Kremlin's intentions regarding Ukraine are maximalist and inflexible and will not change in the foreseeable future":

"The West should stop expending resources trying to change a reality it cannot control and focus on what it can shape: denying Russia the ability to wage war against Ukraine. Negotiations, ceasefires, and peace agreements are not solutions, but rather gateways for the Kremlin to renew its attack on Ukraine in the future under conditions advantageous to Russia. They are means to the same end – complete control over Ukraine and the eradication of Ukrainian statehood and identity. The vital interest of the USA in preventing future Russian attacks on Ukraine is best achieved by depriving Russia of the ability to carry out such attacks. The immediate need is to maintain Ukrainian momentum on the battlefield - considering a possible renewed Russian offensive this winter – to ensure Ukraine occupies the most advantageous position possible. The West should also deny Russia the ability to attack Ukraine in the future by denying Russia a military base in Ukraine from which it can launch attacks, by rejecting "peace" agreements that the Kremlin will use to buy time to reconstitute its forces, by preventing the Russian arms industry complex from accessing Western markets, and by committing to long-term build up Ukraine's defense capability."

The full Russian Offensive Update 302 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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