UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 301 - DECEMBER 19, 2022

The Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko rejected Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to force Belarus into further concessions on Russian-Belarusian integration during a meeting in Minsk on December 19.

Putin and Lukashenko did not publicly discuss the Russian invasion in Ukraine, but emphasized that Belarus still poses a western threat. Putin announced that considering the "escalating" situation at the external borders of the Union State, he might consider training Belarusian fighter aircraft crews for the use of "ammunition with special warheads." ISW has previously noted that Lukashenko uses rhetoric about defending Belarusian borders against the West and NATO to avoid involvement in the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Lukashenko had made similar hints about the possible use of nuclear weapons in Belarus in connection with alleged Western aggression on February 17. Lukashenko has pointed out that Russia will provide S-400 air defense systems and Iskander complexes, while Putin stated that both leaders had discussed the formation of a common defense space.

ISW still finds Belarus's involvement in Putin's war against Ukraine unlikely. The fact that Putin appears to have accepted Lukashenko's arguments without pressuring Lukashenko to adjust indirectly supports this assessment. Lukashenko would likely adjust his rhetoric to provide his own population with a plausible explanation for suddenly turning away from the fictional NATO invasion threat he has fabricated to join Putin's disastrous invasion in Ukraine.

The full Russian Offensive Update 301 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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