UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 300 - 18 DECEMBER 2022

The Russian military leadership is currently conducting a campaign to present itself as part of an effective war machine and to counter the public perception of Russian failures in Ukraine.

On December 18, the Russian Ministry of Defense released footage allegedly showing Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu on a working trip to the Southern Military District (SMD) and inspecting Russian forces in the combat zone in Ukraine. Reports indicate that Shoigu received instructions from field commanders and spoke directly to personnel on the front lines, with a focus on „paying special attention to the organization of comprehensive support for the troops, the conditions for deploying personnel in the field, and the work of medical and rear units.“ The Russian Ministry of Defense released footage on December 17 showing Shoigu meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and the Commander of the Joint Forces Group in Ukraine, Sergei Surovikin, discussing short- and medium-term proposals for Russian operations in Ukraine. Shoigu's recent engagement suggests that the Russian Ministry of Defense is attempting to strengthen its reputation as an effective military organization in the face of continued criticism from war enthusiasts regarding its conduct of the war.

The recent concerted efforts of Russian military leaders to portray themselves as actively involved in planning and controlling the war efforts, especially in the absence of tangible military victories in Ukraine, could indicate that Russia is preparing for a renewed offensive against Ukraine in the coming months. Shoigu's visit to the SMD - with a focus on maintenance and medical support - is likely part of efforts to show that the military leadership is addressing the devastating failures of the Russian military in these areas, which have been the subject of constant angry comments from military bloggers and protests from soldiers and their families.

The full Russian Offensive Update 300 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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