UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 293 - 11. DECEMBER 2022

Russian officials repeatedly conduct information operations suggesting that Belarusian conventional ground forces could join the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Belarusian leadership, including President Alexander Lukashenko, sometimes plays along with these information operations. The goal of these efforts is to tie up Ukrainian forces at the Belarusian border, preventing them from reinforcing Ukrainian operations in other parts of the area. It is highly unlikely that Belarus will invade Ukraine in the near future, regardless of the outcome of these information operations. Furthermore, a Belarusian intervention in Ukraine would not be able to achieve more than temporarily diverting Ukrainian ground forces from other parts of the theater, given the extremely limited effective combat power available to Minsk.

Russian forces made minor territorial gains around Bakhmut, while Russian and Ukrainian sources reported ongoing fighting in the area. A spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Ukrainian forces stated that Russian forces had altered their tactics, using smaller attack groups for offensive actions instead of battalions.

Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian forces attacked a Russian military base in Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, with one source claiming that up to 200 Russian military personnel were killed.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 293 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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