UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 280 - 28. NOVEMBER 2022

Recent claims of Russian territorial gains around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 do not indicate an imminent Russian encirclement of Bakhmut. Geolocated images suggest that Russian forces likely captured Ozarianivka (a village about 15 km southwest of Bakhmut) around November 27 and 28. Several Russian sources claim that Russian forces have also captured Kurdiumiwka (13 km southwest of Bakhmut), Klischtschiwka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut), Andriiwka (10 km southwest of Bakhmut), Selenopillia (13 km south of Bakhmut), Pidhorodne (5 km northeast of Bakhmut), and Spirne (30 km northeast of Bakhmut) with the intention of encircling Bakhmut from the south and east.

There are currently no open sources to support these claims. Russian sources have been spreading false claims about territorial gains around Bakhmut as part of a continued information campaign since October, and the recent unsubstantiated territorial claims could be part of this continued information campaign. However, even if Russian forces did manage to gain control of settlements south of Bakhmut, these gains do not threaten the critical T0513 (Bakhmut-Siversk) and T0504 (Bakhmut-Kostjantyniwka) routes, which serve as crucial Ukrainian Ground Lines of Communication (GLOCs) to Bakhmut. Additionally, there is a network of smaller village roads connecting to the northwest of the city with Bakhmut. The alleged Russian positions in Klischtschiwka and Pidhorodne, closest to Bakhmut, lead directly into prepared Ukrainian defensive positions in Bakhmut and its western and northern satellite villages. To advance further, Russian troops in Klischtschiwka would have to cross three kilometers of open fields with little cover and concealment.

Given the current degraded state of Russian forces, they are likely not able to quickly accomplish this task. Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin himself noted in October that Wagner forces in the Bakhmut area only advance 100-200 meters a day. Therefore, the Russian advances claimed around Bakhmut on November 27 and 28 are unlikely to have an operational impact, let alone a swift one.

The full Russian Offensive Update 280 is available directly through UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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