UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 28 - 18 MARCH 2022

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have carried out a major successful counterattack around Mykolaiv in recent days, and Russian forces were only able to make further territorial gains around Mariupol on March 18. Russian forces are facing increasing morale and supply issues. Reports are increasing of self-mutilations among Russian troops to avoid deployment in Ukraine, as well as shortages of critical guided munitions.

On March 18, the Ukrainian General Staff further reported that Russia had not achieved its strategic goals in Ukraine, including the destruction of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the capture of Kyiv, and control over Ukraine up to the eastern bank of the Dnipro River - for the first time, the Ukrainian General Staff explicitly mentioned this territorial conquest as a Russian goal. Furthermore, on March 18, the Ukrainian General Staff stated that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are "continuing step by step the liberation of temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory in all directions" - the first mention of carrying out counterattacks "in all directions". The full Russian Offensive Update 28 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

There are also political movements: Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have likely agreed that Ukraine will not join NATO, but they do not agree on Ukraine's neutrality, disarmament, and territorial claims (as of March 17). The Financial Times reported on March 15 that Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are considering a 15-point agreement that includes Ukraine giving up its NATO ambitions and, in return for security guarantees from countries like the US, UK, and Turkey, promising not to host foreign military bases or weapons. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed on March 15 that Ukraine will not join NATO, citing reservations from NATO states rather than Russian demands. Further analysis on the development of the political situation.

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