UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 275 - NOVEMBER 22, 2022

The Kremlin appears to be creating conditions for a false flag attack in the Russian Belgorod Oblast, likely in an effort to regain public support for the war in Ukraine. Kremlin propagandists have begun hypothesizing that Ukrainian forces intend to invade the Belgorod Oblast, while other Russian sources have indicated that Russian forces need to regain control of Kupjansk in the Kharkiv Oblast to minimize the threat of a Ukrainian attack.

These claims have been circulating in the milblogger community, which had criticized the Russian military command for abandoning buffer positions in Wovchansk in the northeast of the Kharkiv region after the Russian withdrawal from the area in September. Russian milbloggers also increasingly demanded that Russia recapture the liberated areas in the Kharkiv region on November 22, as such preventive measures would deter Ukrainians from carrying out attack operations towards Kupjansk and Wovchansk. Governor of the Belgorod Oblast, Vyacheslav Gladkov, also released footage showing the construction of fortifications of the Sasetschnaya Line on the border between Ukraine and the Belgorod Oblast. The financier of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, made it clear that Wagner is building the Zasechnaya Line, after changing its name to Wagner Line because "many people in [Russia] do not like the activities of the private military company Wagner." Private military companies are illegal in Russia.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 273 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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