UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 274 - NOVEMBER 21, 2022

For two days, the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) was shelled and heavily damaged on November 20 and 21. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated on November 21 that there were no immediate concerns regarding nuclear safety and that the integrity of all six nuclear reactors as well as the spent and fresh fuel storage facilities was not compromised despite the intense shelling.

Both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of conducting artillery attacks on the NPP on November 20 and 21. A Russian military blogger referenced a video of the shelling taken by Chechen forces, stating that the shelling apparently originated from positions in the area controlled by Russia south of the NPP, rather than from the area controlled by Ukraine to the north. The head of the Russian nuclear power plant operator Rosatom, Alexey Likhachev, warned of a nuclear disaster at ZNPP, and Russian military bloggers largely supported his remarks, calling for the transfer of all Ukrainian nuclear power plants to Russian management.

The ISW has previously noted that Russian forces staged false flag attacks on the ZNPP and reported on the unlawful militarization of the ZNPP by Russian forces. Artillery strikes are unlikely to penetrate the containment vessels protecting each nuclear reactor, instead posing a greater threat to the facilities storing spent fuel rods, from which radioactive material could escape and cause a radiological (as opposed to nuclear) disaster if compromised. The ongoing conflation of radiological and nuclear accidents and the constant discussion of the threat of a disaster at ZNPP are likely part of a broader Russian information operation aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine and portraying Russian control of the power plant as essential for preventing a nuclear catastrophe, in order to consolidate further operational and administrative control over Ukrainian nuclear facilities and compel parts of the international community to indirectly recognize the Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory.

The full Russian Offensive Update 273 is available directly at UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online