UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 228 - OCTOBER 5, 2022

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the north of Kharkiv has not yet reached its peak after a month of successful operations and is now advancing into the west of the Luhansk region. On October 5, Ukrainian forces captured Hrekiwka and Makiwka in the western Luhansk region (about 20 km southwest of Swatow). The head of the Luhansk region, Serhij Haidai, reports that Ukrainian forces began the liberation of unspecified villages in the Luhansk region on October 5. Ukrainian forces began the maneuver phase of their counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region on September 6, which has now also reached the Luhansk region.

Russian forces have not been able to hold the banks of the Oskil and Siverskij Donez rivers and use them as natural boundaries to prevent Ukrainian forces from advancing into vulnerable areas of the northeast of Ukraine occupied by Russia.

The terrain in western Luhansk is suitable for the type of rapid maneuver warfare that Ukrainian forces effectively employed in the eastern Kharkiv region at the beginning of September, and open sources show no indication that the Russian military has significantly reinforced the western part of the Luhansk region. The ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and south likely force the Kremlin to prioritize the defense of one operational area at the expense of the other, which could increase the likelihood of Ukrainian success in both regions.

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