UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 205 - SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine continues to have significant effects on Russian morale and military capabilities in the south of Ukraine. Satellite images of well-known Russian positions in Kyseliwka, 15 km northeast of Kherson city, show that all but four Russian vehicles have left their former positions. This corresponds with rumors that the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) troops have abandoned Kyseliwka and are withdrawing towards the Dnipro River. Kyseliwka is of operational importance to the Russian forces in the vicinity of Kherson city, as it is the last major settlement along the E58 highway and a railway line between the current Ukrainian positions and Chornobaivka, the outermost part of Kherson city. The apparent withdrawal of Russian troops from this position could affect the Russians' ability to defend the northwestern suburbs of Kherson city and indicates that the Russian troops in this area perceive an immediate threat to their positions. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokeswoman Natalya Humenyuk stated on September 12 that Russian troops on the right bank of the Dnipro in the Kherson area are attempting to negotiate surrender under the auspices of international law. It is unlikely that Ukrainian operations in the Kharkiv area had such a dramatic psychological effect on Russian troops so far south, and both the withdrawal of troops from the forward positions in Kyseliwka and the reports of surrender negotiations are indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensives in the south are making significant progress, even though visibility on this axis is limited by the shift of focus to Kharkiv.

The Russian military command may suspend the deployment of newly formed units to Ukraine due to recent Russian losses and overall poor morale.

The Russian forces are unable to reinforce the new frontline after Ukrainian advances in the eastern Kharkiv Oblast, and they are actively fleeing the area or shifting to other axes.

The Ukrainian forces continue their attacks on Russian military facilities and positions in the Kherson Oblast, likely continuously weakening them. The Ukrainian recapture of Izyum has probably hampered the ability of Russian forces to conduct artillery attacks along the Izyum-Slovyansk highway.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports the restoration of the second reserve power line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.

The full Russian Offensive Update 205 is available directly at UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online