UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 200 - SEPTEMBER 7, 2022

The Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southeastern Kharkiv Oblast are likely taking advantage of the Russian troop movement to the southern axis to conduct an extremely effective counteroffensive northwest of Izyum. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have achieved tactical surprise, advancing at least 20 km into the area held by the Russians in the east of Kharkiv Oblast on September 7, reclaiming approximately 400 square kilometers. According to Russian sources, Russian troops have begun moving reinforcements into the area to defend against Ukrainian advances, and the Russian grouping in this area was likely understaffed due to previous Russian deployments to support ongoing efforts to seize the remaining Donetsk area and support the southern axis.

The ongoing Ukrainian operations in the Kherson area have forced the Russian Armed Forces to shift their focus southward, allowing the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Izyum area to carry out localized but extremely effective counterattacks. Russian military bloggers expressed concerns that this Ukrainian counterattack aims to cut off ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Russian rear areas in Kupyansk and Izyum, which would enable Ukrainian troops to isolate Russian groupings in these areas and reclaim large portions of the territory. These military bloggers mostly expressed panic and desperation, acknowledging significant Ukrainian successes and claiming that the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south could be a distraction from the ongoing actions in the Kharkiv region, which they consider the main Ukrainian efforts.

The extent of shock and open discussion of Ukrainian successes by Russian military bloggers reflects the level of surprise that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have achieved and likely successfully demoralized the Russian Armed Forces. While it is unlikely that the southern counteroffensive and efforts to wear down Russian forces in southern Ukraine are a feint for renewed operations in the Kharkiv Oblast, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have likely carefully utilized the redistribution of Russian troops, equipment, and the overall operational focus to launch localized counteroffensives against critical points in the Kharkiv Oblast.

The complete Russian Offensive Update 200 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

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