UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 187 - AUGUST 25, 2022

The decree of Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 25 to increase the size of the Russian military from January 2023 is unlikely to significantly enhance combat power in the near future and suggests that Putin is unlikely to order a mass mobilization anytime soon.

The decree will increase the nominal end strength of the Russian Armed Forces by 137,000 soldiers from 1,013,628 to 1,150,628 starting January 1, 2023. The Russian military is likely seeking to compensate for losses in the Ukraine invasion and establish forces to sustain its operations in Ukraine. The announcement of a relatively modest (but likely still unattainable) target for the end strength increase strongly suggests that Putin remains determined to avoid full mobilization. It is unlikely that the Kremlin will be able to field enough troops to reach an end strength of over 1,150,000 soldiers as outlined in the decree. In the past, the Russian military has not met its end strength goals. In 2022, before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the number of active soldiers was only about 850,000, far below the nominal end strength target of over one million.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northwest and northeast of Slovyansk, northeast and south of Bakhmut, and northwest of Donetsk city.

Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack in the northwest of Kharkiv Oblast.

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in the northwest of Kherson Oblast.

Ukrainian forces continued to target Russian military facilities and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in Kherson Oblast.

The full Russian Offensive Update 186 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online