UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 160 - JULY 29, 2022

During a kinetic attack on July 28th, numerous Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed and wounded in the Russian-occupied Olenivka, Donetsk region. Ukraine and Russia blame each other for the attack, and the available visual evidence seems to support the Ukrainian claim more strongly than the Russian one, but ISW cannot currently independently assess the nature of the attack or the party responsible for it.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukrainian forces intentionally attacked the detention facility in Olenivka, where Ukrainian prisoners of war, including members of the Azov Regiment, are held, with HIMARS weapons provided by the West, resulting in at least 40 prisoners killed and 75 wounded. Videos published by the Kremlin-friendly news agency "RIA Novosti" showed damage to the detention facility, but not the type of damage that a HIMARS strike would likely cause. RIA Novosti also released footage of HIMARS rocket fragments, but did not provide evidence that the fragments were recovered in Olenivka.

The Ambassador of the Luhansk People's Republic (LNR) in Russia, Leonid Miroshnik, claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked the detention facility to destroy evidence of Ukrainian surrender and prevent prisoners of war from speaking out against the Ukrainian government.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian General Staff claimed that Russian forces conducted the attack as a false flag operation to cover up Russian war crimes, disrupt the supply of Western weapons, discredit Ukrainian forces, and stoke social tensions in Ukrainian society. The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Ukrainian analysis of building damage, intercepted phone calls between Russian soldiers, the lack of reports of shelling in Olenivka, and the absence of casualties among Russian personnel serving at the penal colony pointed to a deliberate "terrorist act" by the Russians as the cause of the incident. The Ukrainian military Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) accused the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, of ordering the "terrorist act" without consultation with the Russian Ministry of Defense to cover up embezzlement of funds for the upkeep of Ukrainian prisoners of war ahead of an official inspection scheduled for September 1. At this time, ISW cannot definitively assess the nature of the event or the party responsible. We will update our assessment as more information becomes available.

Members of Russian President Vladimir Putin's "United Russia" party have traveled to the occupied Ukrainian territories to promote an organization called "We're With Russia," likely intended to give the appearance of grassroots demand for Russian annexation of occupied Ukraine and prepare for fake annexation referendums.

Read the full Russian Offensive Update 160 directly at UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online