UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 151 - JULY 20, 2022

The current Russian offensive could secure limited additional territorial gains in the Donbass northeast of the E40, but is likely to peak before it can capture larger populated areas such as Sloviansk or Bakhmut.

Russian forces have made no significant progress towards Sloviansk or along the bulge between Siversk and Bakhmut in recent weeks, diminishing their own offensive capabilities in localized fighting for small and relatively insignificant settlements throughout the Donetsk area. Since capturing Lysychansk and the border with Luhansk region on July 3, Russian troops have been mainly focused on attempting to take Siversk, yet they have not reached the city as of July 20. Similarly, Russian forces have failed to launch direct assaults on Bakhmut and have primarily engaged in fighting for small settlements to the east and south of the city. Efforts to advance on Sloviansk have largely stalled and made no significant progress for weeks.

The resumption of active ground offensives after a brief operational pause has not led to significant Russian advancements, though either continued Russian pressure or the completion of Russian efforts to rebuild combat strength in the coming days or weeks could result in limited progress.

The full Russian Offensive Update 151 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online