UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 137 - JULY 6, 2022

On July 6, for the first time in 133 days of war, there were no alleged or evaluated Russian territorial gains in Ukraine, supporting ISW's assessment that the Russian forces have largely initiated a operational pause.

Since the start of the war, the Russian Ministry of Defense has reported territorial gains every day, but has not reported any new territorial gains or movements of ground troops since the complete encirclement of Lysychansk on July 3. Nevertheless, on July 6, Russian forces conducted limited and unsuccessful ground attacks on all axes. Such attempts are in line with a Russian operational pause, which does not mean or require a complete cessation of active hostilities. In this case, it likely means that Russian forces will likely limit themselves to relatively small offensive actions while trying to create the conditions for more extensive offensive operations and restore the combat power required for these more ambitious undertakings.

The Kremlin continues to prepare for a protracted war by creating conditions for the crypto-mobilization of the economy and largely initiating an operational pause in Ukraine. Russian forces may be forming a new military unit in Mulino (Nizhny Novgorod region), possibly establishing a 3rd Army Corps there.

The full Russian Offensive Update 136 is available directly at UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR on the Internet.