UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 136 - JULY 5, 2022

The declared goals of Russia in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the curtailment of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian state surviving the Russian onslaught, despite Russian military setbacks and rhetoric hinting at a reduction of war aims following these defeats. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated on July 5 that Russia's military operation in Ukraine will continue until Russia achieves its goals, namely protecting the civilian population from "genocide," "de-Nazifying" and demilitarizing Ukraine, and committing Ukraine to permanent neutrality between Russia and NATO. Putin had stated that the operation aims to protect the civilian population from humiliation and genocide, demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine, and punish the perpetrators of genocide. Patrushev's explicit restatement of Putin's original goals almost five months later strongly suggests that the Kremlin does not consider recent Russian gains in the Luhansk region sufficient to achieve the original goals of the "special operation," reinforcing ISW's ongoing assessment that the Kremlin has significant territorial ambitions beyond the Donbas. Patrushev's statement indicates that the Russian military leadership will continue to push for advances outside Donetsk and Luhansk and that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war with the intention of taking much larger portions of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russian forces continued their offensive operations northwest and east of Slovyansk.

Russian forces are attempting to advance west of the Lysychansk area towards Siversk.

Russian forces are likely seeking access to village roads southeast of Bakhmut to advance on the city from the south.

Ukrainian forces conducted a limited counterattack southwest of Donetsk.

The full Russian Offensive Update 136 is available directly through UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online