UKRAINE: THE SITUATION 115 - JUNE 14, 2022

The Belarusian armed forces began a staff exercise on June 14, focusing on testing leadership and control capabilities. General Andrei Burdyko, head of the logistics department of the Belarusian armed forces, announced that military authorities, unspecified military units, and logistics organizations will participate in the exercise.

The goal of the exercise is to enhance the coherence of leadership and logistical support to improve the overall level of training and practical skills of personnel in a "dynamically changing environment." Despite the start of this exercise, it is unlikely that Belarus will intervene in the war in Ukraine, as President Alexander Lukashenko faces the threat of domestic unrest if he involves the already limited Belarusian military units in combat. Belarusian entry into the war would likely result in further crippling sanctions against Belarus. Any unsupported Belarusian attack on northern Ukraine would likely be highly ineffective, and the quality of Belarusian troops remains low. ISW will continue to monitor Belarusian movements but does not anticipate Belarusian entry into the war at this time.

The Russian military authorities are exploring ways to increase the number of available recruits to compensate for ongoing personnel losses in Ukraine.

The Russian armed forces continue to battle for control of the Azot industrial plant and have destroyed all bridges between Sewerodonezk and Lyssytschansk, isolating the remaining Ukrainian defenders within the city from key communication lines.

The Russian armed forces continue to prepare for offensive operations southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman towards Slovyansk.

The full Russian Offensive Update 115 is available directly from UNDERSTANDING WAR.

UNDERSTANDING WAR online