UKRAINE: 3 QUESTIONS - 3 ANSWERS, PART 34: War and Escalation?

10/25/2022 By Redaktion

Austrian Armed Forces Christoph Bilban Conflicts War

On October 19, Russian President Putin declared a state of war in the four annexed territories of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. However, the powers of the authorities were also extended in border areas and other Russian regions. Christoph Bilban analyzes possible developments. He is a researcher at the Institute for Peacekeeping and Conflict Management of the National Defense Academy in Vienna. His research focuses include conflicts in the post-Soviet space and the foreign and security policy of the Russian Federation.

The Bundesheer expert says:

Is Russia now officially at war with Ukraine?

No, even though it seems contradictory, President Putin still refers to it as a "special military operation." He seems very intent on exhausting all constitutional and legal avenues without formally declaring war on Ukraine.

He justifies the declaration of war in the four annexed territories of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk with the "use of armed force against the territorial integrity of the Russian Federation." In practice, not much changes in these four regions, as the state of war existed in the areas even before their annexation. The economy and civilian life are largely subordinated to the needs of the military. Civil rights can be restricted (e.g., censorship, curfews, compulsory labor, etc.), civilians can be forcibly resettled from "threatened" areas.

More significant may be Putin's decision to increase the response levels of the authorities throughout Russia. This creates a kind of "war lite" with various gradations, where the higher levels include the measures of the lower levels. The "base level" covers all of Russia. For example, critical infrastructure and government facilities are to be protected, and preparations for territorial defense and civil protection are to be made. Crisis staffs are also to be set up in all regions.

The highest level applies initially in the eight border regions with Ukraine (including the annexed Crimea and the city of Sevastopol). For example, people can be forcibly resettled or travel in and out of the region can be restricted. In the other areas of the two federal districts bordering Ukraine, which fall under the "middle level," restrictions on traffic or searches of transport vehicles without cause may be possible. Companies in transportation and communication, IT and data centers, and printing houses may be obligated to provide services to the army. Each region is to decide on the specific measures according to the security situation, but at the same time, Putin announced the establishment of a coordinating council.

What does Putin aim to achieve with this decision?

The decision must be seen in the context of recent developments – the impending loss of Kherson, shelling of the Russian city of Belgorod, assassination at a military training ground, and attack on the Crimean bridge. Putin seems to be preparing Russia for a prolonged military conflict and the final transition to a war economy. He likely tries to resolve the (supply) problems of his army through sometimes extensive state interventions and better coordination between state and economic actors through the new coordination council.

The new powers allow for the forcible relocation of people from "endangered" areas. This could help address the difficult simultaneous supply of the military and civilian population in the combat zones in Donbass given the thinned supply lines.

Moreover, the military now has access to key economic sectors in the border regions with Ukraine, which likely aims to improve logistical structures before the arrival of the majority of mobilized forces. However, it remains to be seen what specific measures will be imposed. In any case, Putin is increasing the room for maneuver for Russian authorities and the military.

As a "side effect," by delegating responsibility for the measures to the coordinating council and local authorities, Putin would have scapegoats ready if unpopular, highly restrictive measures are taken. He did something similar during the COVID-19 pandemic, when, for example, lockdowns were imposed by regional authorities.

Is an imminent escalation to be feared?

The risk of a so-called "vertical escalation" exists, for example, through the use of chemical or nuclear weapons against Ukraine. But such an escalation seems unlikely at the moment. The current step is a so-called "horizontal escalation," which probably aims to underscore the regime's determination to defend the territories. In this case, no new, i.e., previously unused, weapons systems are used, but political measures are being taken.

Together with the intensified attacks on cities and energy infrastructure in Ukraine since October 10 and the deployment of the Regional Group of Troops of the Russian-Belarusian Union State at the Ukrainian northern border, Putin likely wants to demonstrate strength and create new room for maneuver.

Most likely, the Kremlin also wants to further unsettle the Western supporters of Ukraine and instill fear to reduce support for Ukraine. Russia is trying to exert pressure on Ukraine on as many levels as possible, hoping to push the leadership in Kyiv towards a negotiated solution. At the same time, pressure on Putin is likely to increase as well, as the war has been almost present throughout the Russian population since the partial mobilization in September.