UKRAINE: 3 QUESTIONS - 3 ANSWERS, PART 31: Counterattack?

07/12/2022 By Redaktion

Austrian Armed Forces Experts Conflicts War

The war in Ukraine is entering a new phase: Russian forces have managed to capture territories, especially in the east of the country. However, there are signs that the Ukrainian army might be planning a counteroffensive in the south.

Colonel Berthold Sandtner works at the Institute for Advanced Military Leadership at the National Defense Academy in Vienna. He describes whether such an undertaking would have a chance of success.

Statement from the Bundesheer Expert:

According to media reports, a counteroffensive by the Ukrainian armed forces (in the south) is imminent. Do they have the necessary forces qualitatively and quantitatively?

For almost two months, attacks by Ukrainian forces have been observed in the south of the country, especially in the Kherson region. It was assessed that these attacks were aimed at finding gaps in the Russian defense system to prepare for a possible offensive in this area.

Even though Ukraine has managed to mobilize additional forces and make them ready for deployment, it is to be assumed that large parts of the Ukrainian armed forces are tied up in the Donbass region or are severely depleted after nearly five months of war.

The lack of air supremacy and the slow influx of long-range and highly precise Western rocket launcher systems are also factors that could negatively impact Ukrainian offensive capabilities.

What factors would be crucial for a military success of Ukraine in the south?

In addition to providing robust offensive forces (especially tank and mechanized infantry forces, as well as appropriate engineering capabilities), the main goal would be to deny the Russian Air Force the use of the airspace above the attack area by deploying sufficiently long-range air defense systems. They would also need to try to balance the currently unfavorable force ratio in this area by bringing in additional Western artillery and rocket launcher systems.

Is there a comparable scenario in military history? What was its outcome and why?

If successful, the possible Ukrainian counterattack in the south could restore or secure the crucial access to the Black Sea coast. However, this approach is associated with a high operational risk as the forces deployed in the south would be missing from the defense in the east.

A possible military-historical comparison (though under entirely different circumstances) could be drawn with the German "Ardennes Offensive" (1944/45), in which the Germans sought to recapture the port of Antwerp and thus cut off the Allies from a part of their supplies. Although this offensive was initially very successful, it ended in a German defeat caused by the lack of appropriate military resources.