UKRAINE: 3 QUESTIONS - 3 ANSWERS, PART 3: Is there resistance?

The fighting in Ukraine continues and we are constantly receiving questions about the conflict. Here we answer the most common ones.

These questions are answered by Colonel Markus Reisner, the head of the development department at the Military Academy in Wiener Neustadt.

The Austrian Armed Forces Expert's Opinion:

Currently, there is no direct threat to Austria. How would the conflict need to escalate to directly affect Austria?

A current analysis of the attacks by Russian troops shows that the intention is to take Ukraine in phases. Another attack on NATO countries is not apparent. For example, there are no large attack formations near the Baltic States. However, a push to the western border of Ukraine would bring Russian troops directly to the border of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania. This could lead to a worsening of the situation.

Is the resistance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stronger than expected?

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to defend important transportation hubs and especially the capital. Due to ongoing Russian attacks using long-range rockets and air force, as well as the massive use of artillery and rocket launchers, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are increasingly finding themselves in the dilemma of having to fight a war of attrition. Despite weapons deliveries from the West, the capacity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to sustain this in the long term is very limited.

After a military defeat of Ukraine, can we expect a continuation of guerrilla warfare?

If a rapid capture – possibly even of the entire Ukraine – is successful, the country will initially be in a state of shock. The installation of a puppet government by the Russian occupiers is likely. The establishment of a resistance movement, especially in the western part of the country, will only be possible after preparation. Once this is done, it is quite possible that there will be ambushes and attacks on the occupiers. This would again lead to a worsening of the situation and possibly be accompanied by reprisals from the Russian side.

Austrian Armed Forces Website